Last Minute Diplomacy
Diplomatic activity is on the rise as we get closer to the new UN Ahtisaari vote. Veton Surroi has been to Panama and returned with their vote for the Ahtisaari plan. Another member of his party and Kosovo delegation member went to Qatar. He also has secured its support for the Ahtisaari plan. Indonesia is still undecided. There is talk that Indonesia might come on board through an Islamic Conference joint support for the plan.
On the other hand, Kosovo Serb Orthodox Bishop visited South Africa, which is still undecided. Several weeks ago Serbia foreign minister Draskovic assured his public decisively that he had secured the South Africa vote against independence, but apparently he didn't since there was need to do it again. SA UN ambassador stated after the visit to Kosovo that one visit is not enough and they are still thinking about it.
So there it is, a likely Indonesia pro vote, and South Africa is still undecided.
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UN visit was better than Prishtina hoped for. The atmosphere was relaxed with no bombs going off whatsoever (I lost the bet). There was an attempt at some theater on the Serbia-Kosovo border by Kosovo Serbs, with Belgrade even first denying the delegation the flight from Belgrade to Prishtina so that they would have to travel through the gathering of some 8,000 Serbs.
Moscow and Belgrade strategy has now turned into proving that UN Resolution 1244 has not been accomplished, ergo no need for a replacement. Russian Ambassador wondered why Serb military has not yet returned to Kosovo, as prescribed by 1244. Surprise, surprise, Serbia hasn't asked (smartly so) for their return, UNMIK chief answered. Then US Ambassador wondered whether Serbia has supported the resolution. Once again, UNMIK chief replied that Serbia has been sabotaging the implementation of the resolution by pressuring K-Serbs not to participate in the Kosovo institutions.
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"Independence despite Russia" voices have multiplied. After US diplomats and Kosovo PM, president made a similar statement.
Ahtisaari has come out publicly saying that Russia cannot block the plan, before the Contact Group meeting in London at the insignificant level of political directors for the Balkans. This statement probably seals his further participation in the Kosovo process after discounting Russia's ego like that.
Macedonia says it will support the plan, even if it fails in the UN provided that major EU countries support it. This is the strongest support by Macedonia yet.
4 comments:
Macedonia play with fire... Kosovo will come there very soon and than they will change their mind...
"Frankfurter Rundschau": Ahtisaari's plan is facing failure
Frankfurt /03/05/ 18:09
Martti Ahtisaari's plan on the future status of Kosovo is likely to fall through, writes the German daily Frankfurter Rundschau.
The paper says that such an outcome is lurking after completion of the UN Mission's visit to Belgrade and Pristina.
"UN delegation came back to New York filled with skepticism", the paper says, adding that unofficial assessments suggest that the plan is unlikely to win the necessary 9 out of 15 votes at the Security Council in order to pass.
According to the newspaper, only USA, Great Britain, France, Belgium and Italy have voiced unambiguous readiness to back the plan. Peru, Panama and Qatar are floating, while South Africa, Congo, Ghana, Indonesia and China are against in principle, whereas Slovakia and Russia are strongly opposing the adoption of the document.
Frankfurter Rundschau underlines that after the visit to Belgrade and Pristina, the South African Ambassador in UN said that the situation on the ground was drastically different to the one described in the UNMIK's reports.
http://www.makfax.com.mk/look/novina/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=2&NrArticle=66009&NrIssue=336&NrSection=20
Dejane,
Thanks for reading.
I'm not sure if your first comment is a threat or what.
As far as the second one goes, I don't know much about the reliability of the source. I didn't say that the plan will pass, so their conclusion might still be right. But it seems to me that their supporting information is dated one from the wires. On the other hand, Surroi and Ylber Hysa are two politicians I consider very reliable. Things of course might change, but that's where things stand right now.
Indonesia and South Africa are two major stumbling blocks. Others can be bought off by USAID. China and Russia are a story in itself, although if they can be isolated, that's a major step towards our goal. Support right now stands at 11 members.
warchild,
my first coment wasn't any threat,it was a pure fact. Country which contain 35 or 40% albanians could never be safe. Soon or latter they will step out with their political statements in easy or stormy way. Look at Epirus! It started with anonymous web site, but in fact it is pulse measuring.
As for my other comment, I agree with you that source are not so "acoustic" but they were right. Ant there is not only South Africa and Indonesia are "stumbling blocks". From the very beginning Slovakia was against plan. Congo and Peru become that latter. But with a "bought off by USAID" everything is possible. Especially with "bought off by Albanian drug mafia".
If you find sometimes it is hard to understand my words, it's all ok with you...it is just my bad english :)
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