To Russia with Love
So which one is it, no solution until September or a solution on Friday, June 1. It seems like the UN Resolution will be put for voting that day. This last one has been fed by diplomats close to the negotiations to respectable media such as Koha Ditore in Prishtina and Blic in Belgrade. Add to that Jutarni List's Moscow source saying that an agreement is close and we may see Russia coming back to the Balkans for peacekeeping and Kosovo independent with a UN seat after a two year moratorium. Yupi!
I don't mind Russians in Serb enclaves as long as Americans, Brits and Germans are protecting the borders. Otherwise Russians will turn into a Trojan horse. They could also find themselves into a hostile sea of Albanians, giving US some ammunition to work on local and global matters vis-a-vis Russia.
For the Serb population in enclaves this is as damaging as it gets. They will still not have any incentive to cooperate with their Albanian neighbors and will be left hanging hoping against the inevitable. They will be pawns once again. My hope that status resolution will be a wake up call for them will be postponed for at least another two years.
Since it's always easier to criticize something you are not part of, Russian presence in Serb enclaves will take away all the ammunition away regarding the security of the enclaves. At the same time, the two levels of security from the Serb perspective between "us" and "the rest" will stop Serbs from venturing out into the "wild."
Last time Russians would engage in black market trade of cigarettes and gasoline with the local Albanian population. Yeah, Albanians were capable of buying armaments from the valiant Serbs fighting for the cradle of Serbdom, let alone poor Russian soldiers living thousand of miles away from home on a mission that surprisingly seemed more noble from far away. Very soon their mission will turn stale and they will go home just like the first time around. But in order to go, they will have to announce mission accomplished first.
5 comments:
I personally have doubts that Russia will get too involved. It would be a huge diplomatic stunt to take sides like that, but we'll see.
You are right about the corruption. I remember some Greek "volunteer soldiers" following the Serbian police and army, with trucks, loading up all the electric appliances, satellite dishes, television sets, etc.
The "race to the airport" was one of the great potential confrontations that never happened. Black market cigarettes (and even a lot more) was probably a small price to pay.
Owen,
That "potential" was overrated. Unable to supply the troops, Russia had to ask for food and supplies from NATO soon after.
The only way Russia can have any impact in Kosovo is to project its power through the strategic arsenal and UN veto. Both have their limitations. Sending troops would actually limit its position, though we can never assume that Russia is a rational player.
Dejan,
Whatever the reasons, the lines are pretty much drawn.
A lot of people in Belgrade are sort of petrified by the idea that Russia may use its veto. If they do, and countries start recognizing the independence of Kosovo one by one (and most of the European countries will), Serbia will have to, if not stop, then harden the diplomatic relations with those countries. Not pleasant...
Dejan,
There will be a lot of noise but not much else. Movements in the latest government have made sure that potential troublemakers are under the control of the reasonable Tadic.
What's interesting are Tadic's much more resolute statements now compared to six months ago. Back then he had pretty much given up. I still don't think he has any hope, but he has to appear like he cares for Kosovo at least as much as Bratislava, for example.
Post a Comment