Unilaterally

Kosovo to be independent with or without U.N.: U.S.

By Paul Taylor

Sat Apr 28, 1:32 PM ET

Kosovo will be independent with or without a United Nations resolution, and Russia should back an agreement to protect the Kosovo Serb minority, the United States said on Saturday.

Russia doesn't care about Kosovo Serbs. Heck, not even Serbs care about Kosovo Serbs. For Serbia it's about territory. For Putin it's about irritating the West lest they decide to mess too much with his human rights track record. Isn't Putin the same guy (in a series of guys) that has leveled Chechnya for Pete's sake!? And you expect him to care about what happens to Kosovo Serbs!? Didn't this same Putin withdraw the Russian peacekeeprs from Kosovo a while ago while Serbs were at the same situation they are now? I wonder how come the UN SC and specifically the Russian Ambassador there didn't wonder earlier about the 1244 resolution? I's been eight years now. Maybe unable to provide for its ragtag army, and disgraced by the need to beg NATO Allies for military provisions, going home for good for Russia was a better option so it now can use its strategic arsenal and UN SC veto to bully the West.

Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried said it was possible the latest Russian criticism of U.N. mediator Marti Ahtisaari's plan for the final status of the breakaway Serbian province meant Moscow intended to block a resolution.

Hey, Russian Ambassador in Pristina is saying there hasn't been a change in Russian positions. We don't know yet.

"We hope that Russia understands that Kosovo is going to beindependent one way or another," Fried told Reuters in an interview at a Brussels Forum on transatlantic relations.

Good point! This summer.

"It will either be done in a controlled, supervised way that provides for the well-being of the Serbian people, or it will take place in an uncontrolled way and the Kosovo Serbs will suffer the most, which would be terrible."

Ahtisaari agreement involves major sacrifices that could potentially create an unstable Kosovo anyways. Pristina has acted from the belief that being the good guys by offering all the concessions early on they would be able to get through the process faster and with more sympathy from the negotiators. Further negotiations in the UN SC will water down this document making it unworkable and preparing the ground for instability in the coming years by leaving options open for seccessionism by leopard-skin Serb areas. If there are more negotiations, Pristina having nothing else to give is more advantageous to declare independence unilaterally. From the Albanian perspective, UN recognition is first and foremost about freezing the borders of Kosovo. If such a precognition involves division, then the way to go is to forgo UN recognitation and declare independence unilaterally by June.

Moscow has repeatedly said it will not accept a solution which is unacceptable to Serbia, which is adamantly opposed toany form of independence for Kosovo.

Moscow doesn't accept anything that Serbia doesn't accept. Serbia doesn't accept independence. That leaves us with only one option: Free and Independent Kosova by June. This is far from an ideal solution. But, if Albania, Macedonia, Slovenia, Croatia, Germany, France, UK, US and potentially Italy recognize Kosovo unilaterally (or is it multilaterally), then the economy could do well as far as investments are concerned. Kosovo though will still carry an investment risk premium which these same countries could address if they mean it. Kosovo won't have access to the Serbian market, but tit-for-tat and the countries mentioned earlier could help tremendiously if they really mean it. Germany and UK, through EU, could also stop Serbia from further economic pressure on Kosovo either by Serbia directly or more likely by it bullying its neighbors.

A U.N. Security Council fact-finding mission, which visited Kosovo at Russia's suggestion, wrapped up its visit on Saturday saying they would deliberate on the proposal for its independence without setting deadlines.

"Deciding on important issues should never be hostage to predetermined deadlines," Belgian ambassador and mission head Johan Verbeke told a news conference in Pristina.

They must set a deadline. Serbs have all the time in the world, we don't. SC owes it to the people of Kosovo to set deadlines. They owe it to the students who expect their government to work on a better education system for them but can't because all its energies are directed towards the fate of Kosovo. How much more is a reasonable wait? What if Belgians were in our place? Would Verbeke be so calm and methodical? Doesn't eight years, and almost a century before that, count as time? Let me suggest June 2007 for the deadline.

Ahtisaari, a former Finnish president, proposes supervised independence with a strong role for an international presence to protect minority rights.

Fried acknowledged the European Union could be split over whether or not to recognize Kosovo if there was no U.N.resolution and Kosovo's overwhelming Albanian majority declaredindependence unilaterally.

EU is unable to stand up to the bully for its own sake, let alone that of Kosovo. Anything EU can come up with should be considered a bonus, not something to depend on.

"I see absolutely no advantage to doing this any other way than through a Security Council resolution. I see merely disadvantages," Fried said. "The alternatives are all worse.

Unilateral independence has problems for us and the world community. So far the process has offered UN SC a voice in the talks. Now, Albanians are hellbent on independence and UN SC wouldn't be able to change anything in that. But UN SC by its involvement can make sure that this process follows international law and does not create any precedent. Wouldn't Kosovo independence be a precedent, you might ask. I don't think so. Badinter conclusion was an international shortcut not to irritate the Serbs more than they could handle, a very common short sigthed strategy in international decision making. If anything else, Kosovo independence with UN SC "permission" only strengths the power of the Security Council and its veto-power members such as China and Russia when it comes to these questions.

If on the other hand Kosovo declares independence unilaterally, Slovakia, Spain and whoever else might have a problem. Unilateral independent Basque Country, however theoretical, is much more likely to happen then one recognized by UN SC and EU.

"A divided Europe is a bad thing in general and a terriblething in this particular case."

A resolution would provide legal authority to protect theKosovo Serbs and help the Europeans to unite, he said.

Out of topic, Europe is looking to UN for inspiration? Haven't European leaders ever visited the building? Two years ago they were still typing on typewriters.

Kosovo has been an international protectorate since NATO waged an air war in 1999 to drive out Serbian forces and endethnic cleansing. Some 90 percent of the province's 2 millionpopulation are Albanians.

And hellbent on independence, I might add.

"Kosovo is in the list of problems that do not improve withage and neglect. The situation there is not inherently stable,"said Fried.

Good point. Kosovo has had a vary young population. Imagine what happens when that population comes of age under this failed educational system ghettoized in a quasi country without hope, jobs and with only poor defenseless Serbs to pick on? But since from my statement above you know that nobody cares about Kosovo Serbs, you are still wondering how all this relates to you? Hint words: instability in the region, drug dealers in your streets, prostitution, religious fundamentalism... This is not a threat, its a natural development of human condition.

Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke told the Brussels Forum the next few weeks would be af undamental test of Russian President Vladimir Putin's view of his role in the world.

"If he vetoes the Ahtisaari plan in the Security Council,there will be a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. The United States will recognize them, I hope the sameday ... Some of the EU will, some won't," Holbrooke said.

Same days is fine...

"There will probably be violence on the ground and it will be Russia's fault."

I wouldn't jump to that conclusion. NATO controls the borders of Kosovo. NATO, through the major countries that control the respective sectors (UK, US, France, Italy, and Germany) is authorized to implement the military portion of 1244 resolution. NATO will implement whatever it can or wants and Kosovo will remain at 12:44 security limbo with 12:44 civilian and police administration gone. These same countries can move to safeguard Kosovo borders from any reaction from Serbia. Kosovo Serbs, if the statements of their leaders and their past behavior are any indication, will most likely pick up and leave. Voila! You have an independent country with the most apparent reason of it unable to be so out of the way.

In that case, UN would be amongst a hostile population and probably withdraw alltogether for good. KFOR would have to stay on to protect the Serb churches (another apparent reason) and the 100+ km border with Serbia. The first is impossible, the second is easy to do if there is a will. If NATO on the other hand lets northern part of Kosovo secede, there will most likely be uprisings in Macedonia, Presevo (Presheva) Valley and Montenegro by Albanians seeking the same there. Whatever is now left of Preshevars will most likely also be cleansed in retaliation for the cleansing of Kosovo Serbs that is very, very likely to happen if there is a division of Kosovo. This far I can fathom, Macedonia and Montenegro will be any body's guess.

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt told the Forum heexpected a period of "diplomatic trench warfare" over Kosovo atthe United Nations and suggested the EU should take the lead inseeking a compromise solution, which would take time.

Ah yes, Carl Bildt, the man that was such a big failure in Bosnia.

Asked about Holbrooke's scenario of unilateralindependence, he said: "That is playing with fire."

Whatever he gave up in return, unlike Bildt, Holbrooke at least put out the fire in Bosnia. I think we should give Holbrooke a try. ;)

(Additional reporting by Mark John)

technorati tags:kosovo, kosova, status, un, security