Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Looking for CG

Is it just me or is it weird that Russian objections haven't been channeled through the so called Contact Group on the Balkans. Italy and France were brought on board through that forum. Russia is a full member of CG.

Yesterday there was another such meeting at the level of the modest political directors for the Balkans.
This last meeting is not a deviation from the norm - all previous ones have resulted in little public comments by the participants - but this one was special since pretty much the same countries are expected to be the key players at the Security Council very soon. Yet there was nothing said in public.

Why is Russia raising strong objections now, when it could have during Ahtisaari's consulations with the group months ago? Did Ahtisaari come up with talk of independence at the last minute surprising even CG's Russia and leaving no time for it to respond?

CG along with direct American-Russian diplomacy played a crucial role during the Kosovo War. Back then Dennis Ross was the man. He's still kicking in case the White House needs help.

 

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2 comments:

Jeff said...

I think once the negotiations finished and the draft proposal was headed to the UN and UNSC, the cat was out of the bag. Russia's options became more limited as the CG became less significant.
I think Russia is objecting more strenuously now because Ahtisaari and others are using the word "independence" where before they were not. Ahtisaari's original proposal didn't mention independence, which kept the harder line Russian critics quiet. Now that the "I-word" is formally in play, Russia is stepping up to resist it, for PR purposes, if nothing else.

WARchild said...

Valid points.

On the other hand, one could argue that the i-word was going to be sacrificed if Russia and/or Serbia came on board. When that didn't pan out, Ahtisaari thought he might as well give Albanians what they want.

Rambuillet played our similarly.