Friday, July 21, 2006

it's good to know

Save the Children asks Serb, Albanian, and international negotiators on the status of Kosovo to include the issues of education and protection of children on their agenda.

Croatia makes government policy to develop and use open source. Among the advantages mentioned is cost reduction, independence from foreign suppliers, and development of local IT industry. It remains to be seen whether they will go all the way or whether Microsoft will make an unresistable offer.

First quarter of 2006 saw an increase in exports by 20%. Trade deficit is also slightly down. There are alarm bells going on about the exit of UNMIK early next year and its impact on the economy. A 1.6% slowdown is predicted. Jobless rate is also up and will most likely continue to stay on this level for a long time to come until productivity is brought up on par with wage levels demanded by the job seekers. Those of my countrypeople that expect more jobs with privatization and independence are bound for a big disapointmnet in the coming year, if that is possible at all after the last seven years.

One of the anomalies of the Kosovar economy is that despite the level of poverty its prices are some of the highest in the region. Kinda like Moscow being one of the most expensive cities in Europe. This effect is due to the impact that UNMIK expenditures of the international staff on local services and its local staffs wages. Remittances from emigrants, while lifesavers in some aspects, also skew the prices for the general consumer. Home prices in Kosovo with a 40% poverty rate are up to double of those in Serbia with a 9% poverty rate. This is one of the reasons why Serbs have been selling off so much after the war.

Economy-wise I'm ambivalent about UNMIK leaving. The economy that has developed to service UNMIK is one of house renting and restaurants. Yet Kosovo does not have a future on city tourism. What has resulted is a fake economy that is unsustainable, as we are bound to find out next year.
UNMIK stated that it has spend 2.6 billion on Kosovo, but I wonder how much of this actually went and stayed in the local economy. It is a common practice for EU to commission a study or project and have all the managers paid at incredibly high levels ($10,000/month) come from the countries commissioning the study. True, the residual effect of the experts' works is supposed to remain in Kosovo (with KEK, the poster child of EU expert work, an example of it), but at the same time is it fair to list these donations as contributions to the local economy? Another example is where KFOR could have helped but didn't. My father did some business with one of the countries' KFOR troop supplier (PX). The supplier had an explicit order to import everything possible from the mother country and the mere fact that the PX was doing business with a local business would have lost the contract to the PX if it was discovered. This is neat example of how mother countries expect the money of their "contributions" abroad to go back home instead of what potentially could have been a much more powerful and long term boost to the local food industry than spending money in rent and restaurants.

Similarly, a lot of the reconstruction was done at a time when Kosovo was still recovering resulting in everything being imported. Kosovo's neighbors, including lately the country that burnt those homes itself (Vetëvendosje likes to point out), were the big winners in the process of reconstruction with their industries ready to respond to the needs of Kosovo immediately after the war.

Not to be unthankful, but I'm all for figuring out how much money actually goes to feed the hungry African children, and how much to feed the Western bureaucracy that makes the aid possible.




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